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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2018

A Life Expectancy-Period-Cohort Model to project private car fleet and traffic - Applied to France

Résumé

In most industrialized countries, after decades of gradually slowed growth, car traffic stagnated in the 2000s. This phenomenon has been attributed not only to conventional economic factors (stagnation of incomes, upward volatility in fuel prices) and to re-urbanization linked to metropolisation, but also to demographic factors (ageing of the population, longer life cycle stages leading in particular to delay the passage of the driving license in the younger generations). The economic recovery, albeit rather slow, and a significant drop in the price of oil in 2014 favored a certain revival of traffic growth in several countries (U.S.A., Germany, France, ...); but what about the structural factors and how to predict medium-term developments? We have already dealt with these questions via Age-Period-Cohort models, and more often Age-Cohorts. In view of the over-determination generated by the mechanical link between these three factors, we propose a Life Expectancy-Period-Cohort model (EPC), replacing age by life expectancy at this age and at each date makes it possible to directly estimate the model by keeping three components, while making the approach more consistent with the extension of life cycle stages (extension of studies, women having their children in their thirties, postponement of retirement age, ...). Period effects are specified by introducing the income of the household and a fuel price index as explanatory variables. We will compare the results with the various previous models. We consider the adult population (i.e., of driving age) and consider three phases for automobile behavior: - to pass the driver's license, - to be the main user of a vehicle, - to ride (annual mileage) or frequency of use of the vehicle. Once the models are estimated on the data of the Parc-Auto Kantar-SOFRES 1994-2015 (often 2016) panel survey, we treat an example of medium-term projection of the annual mileage knowing that in the long term the technical innovations (autonomous vehicle, electric and hybrid engines) and organizational (car sharing, carpooling, ...) are likely to fundamentally change the conditions of use of the car.
Dans la plupart des pays industrialisés, après des décennies de croissance progressivement ralentie, la circulation automobile a stagné dans les années 2000. Ce phénomène a été attribué non seulement aux facteurs économiques classiques (stagnation des revenus, volatilité à la hausse du prix des carburants) et à une certaine ré-urbanisation liée à la métropolisation, mais aussi à des facteurs démographiques (vieillissement de la population, allongement des étapes du cycle de vie conduisant notamment à différer le passage du permis de conduire dans les jeunes générations). Nous avons déjà traité ces questions via des modèles Age-Période-Cohorte, et plus souvent Age-Cohorte. Nous proposons un modèle Espérance de vie-Période-Cohorte (EPC) calibré sur les données du panel Parc-Auto Kantar-SOFRES 1994-2016 en remplaçant l'âge par l'espérance de vie à cet âge. Les effets de période sont spécifiés en introduisant le revenu et le prix des carburants comme variables explicatives. Enfin, nous comparons les résultats des différents modèles.
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Dates et versions

hal-01833980 , version 1 (10-07-2018)

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  • HAL Id : hal-01833980 , version 1

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Jean Loup Madre, Yves Bussiere, Richard Grimal, Benoît Cornut. A Life Expectancy-Period-Cohort Model to project private car fleet and traffic - Applied to France. JMS 2018, 13èmes Journées de Méthodologie Statistique de l'INSEE, Jun 2018, Paris, France. 19p. ⟨hal-01833980⟩
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