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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2018

Uncertainty quantification in the Brazilian outbreak of Zika virus

Résumé

Several instances of Zika virus epidemic have been reported around the world in the last 20 years, causing Zika fever to become a disease of international concern. The use of mathematical models for epidemics in this context very important, once they are useful tools to predict the outbreaks underlying numbers, and allow one to test the effectiveness of different strategies to combat associated diseases. This work deals with the development and calibration of an epidemic model to describe the Zika virus outbreak in Brazil. The modeling and quantification of the initial conditions uncertainties is also of interest. In order to calibrate the model, two inverse problems (one deterministic and another one stochastic) are formulated and solved. A consistent stochastic model of uncertainties is constructed by means of a parametric probabilistic approach, which employs Monte Carlo method to compute the propagation of uncertainties.
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Dates et versions

hal-01811699 , version 1 (10-06-2018)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-01811699 , version 1

Citer

Americo Cunha Jr, Eber Dantas, Michel Tosin. Uncertainty quantification in the Brazilian outbreak of Zika virus. The 13th World Conference on Computational Mechanics (WCCM XIII), Jul 2018, New York, United States. ⟨hal-01811699⟩

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