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Article Dans Une Revue Climate of the Past Année : 2016

Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble

Fergus W. Howell
  • Fonction : Auteur
Alan M. Haywood
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
  • Fonction : Auteur
Fran Bragg
  • Fonction : Auteur
Wing-Le Chan
Mark A. Chandler
  • Fonction : Auteur
Youichi Kamae
Nan A. Rosenbloom
  • Fonction : Auteur
Christian Stepanek

Résumé

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.
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hal-01758957 , version 1 (28-07-2020)

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Paternité - Pas d'utilisation commerciale

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Fergus W. Howell, Alan M. Haywood, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Fran Bragg, Wing-Le Chan, et al.. Arctic sea ice simulation in the PlioMIP ensemble. Climate of the Past, 2016, 12 (3), pp.749-767. ⟨10.5194/cp-12-749-2016⟩. ⟨hal-01758957⟩
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