Adaptive covariance inflation in the ensemble Kalman filter by Gaussian scale mixtures - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc.A Année : 2019

Adaptive covariance inflation in the ensemble Kalman filter by Gaussian scale mixtures

Patrick N. Raanes
  • Fonction : Auteur
Marc Bocquet
Alberto Carrassi

Résumé

This paper studies multiplicative inflation: the complementary scaling of the state covariance in the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). Firstly, error sources in the EnKF are catalogued and discussed in relation to inflation; nonlinearity is given particular attention as a source of sampling error. In response, the "finite-size" refinement known as the EnKF-N is re-derived via a Gaussian scale mixture, again demonstrating how it yields adaptive inflation. Existing methods for adaptive inflation estimation are reviewed, and several insights are gained from a comparative analysis. One such adaptive inflation method is selected to complement the EnKF-N to make a hybrid that is suitable for contexts where model error is present and imperfectly parameterized. Benchmarks are obtained from experiments with the two-scale Lorenz model and its slow-scale truncation. The proposed hybrid EnKF-N method of adaptive inflation is found to yield systematic accuracy improvements in comparison with the existing methods, albeit to a moderate degree.

Dates et versions

hal-01714125 , version 1 (21-02-2018)

Identifiants

Citer

Patrick N. Raanes, Marc Bocquet, Alberto Carrassi. Adaptive covariance inflation in the ensemble Kalman filter by Gaussian scale mixtures. Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc.A, 2019, 145 (718), pp.53-75. ⟨10.1002/qj.3386⟩. ⟨hal-01714125⟩
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