Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment
M. Ruiz-Ramos
(1)
,
R. Ferrise
(2)
,
A. Rodríguez
(1)
,
I.J. Lorite
(3, 4)
,
M. Bindi
(2)
,
T.R. Carter
(5)
,
S. Fronzek
(5)
,
T. Palosuo
(6)
,
N. Pirttioja
(5)
,
P. Baranowski
(7)
,
Samuel Buis
(8)
,
D. Cammarano
(9)
,
Y. Chen
(6)
,
B. Dumont
(10, 11)
,
F. Ewert
(12, 13)
,
T. Gaiser
(12, 13)
,
P. Hlavinka
(14, 15)
,
H. Hoffmann
(12, 13)
,
J.G. Höhn
(9)
,
F. Jurecka
(14, 15)
,
K.C. Kersebaum
(16)
,
J. Krzyszczak
(7)
,
M. Lana
(16)
,
A. Mechiche-Alami
(17)
,
J. Minet
(18)
,
M. Montesino
(19)
,
C. Nendel
(16)
,
J.R. Porter
(19)
,
Francoise Ruget
(8)
,
M.A. Semenov
(20)
,
Z. Steinmetz
(21)
,
P. Stratonovitch
(20)
,
I. Supit
(22)
,
F. Tao
(6)
,
M. Trnka
(14, 15)
,
A. de Wit
(22)
,
R.P. Rötter
(23)
1
ETSIAAB
2 UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
3 Junta de Andalucia
4 IFAPA - Instituto Andaluz de Investigación y Formación Agraria y Pesquera
5 SYKE - Finnish Environment Institute
6 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
7 Institute of Agrophysics
8 EMMAH - Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes
9 IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
10 Dpt. AgroBioChem & Terra
11 Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux]
12 Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
13 INRES - Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz
14 Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology
15 CzechGlobe - Global Change Research Centre
16 Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis
17 Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
18 Université de Liège
19 UCPH - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet
20 Rothamsted Research
21 RIFCON GmbH
22 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
23 TROPAGS, Department of Crop Sciences
2 UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
3 Junta de Andalucia
4 IFAPA - Instituto Andaluz de Investigación y Formación Agraria y Pesquera
5 SYKE - Finnish Environment Institute
6 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
7 Institute of Agrophysics
8 EMMAH - Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes
9 IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
10 Dpt. AgroBioChem & Terra
11 Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux]
12 Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
13 INRES - Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz
14 Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology
15 CzechGlobe - Global Change Research Centre
16 Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis
17 Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
18 Université de Liège
19 UCPH - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet
20 Rothamsted Research
21 RIFCON GmbH
22 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
23 TROPAGS, Department of Crop Sciences
Samuel Buis
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 743153
- IdHAL : samuel-buis
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8676-5447
- IdRef : 253121485
F. Ewert
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 861642
Francoise Ruget
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1203697
M. Trnka
- Fonction : Auteur
Résumé
Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the “According to Our Current Knowledge” (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.
Domaines
Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]Format du dépôt | Notice |
---|---|
Type de dépôt | Article dans une revue |
Titre |
en
Adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and CO2 in a Mediterranean environment
|
Résumé |
en
Adaptation of crops to climate change has to be addressed locally due to the variability of soil, climate and the specific socio-economic settings influencing farm management decisions. Adaptation of rainfed cropping systems in the Mediterranean is especially challenging due to the projected decline in precipitation in the coming decades, which will increase the risk of droughts. Methods that can help explore uncertainties in climate projections and crop modelling, such as impact response surfaces (IRSs) and ensemble modelling, can then be valuable for identifying effective adaptations. Here, an ensemble of 17 crop models was used to simulate a total of 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) at Lleida (NE Spain). To support the ensemble building, an ex post quality check of model simulations based on several criteria was performed. Those criteria were based on the “According to Our Current Knowledge” (AOCK) concept, which has been formalized here. Adaptations were based on changes in cultivars and management regarding phenology, vernalization, sowing date and irrigation. The effects of adaptation options under changed precipitation (P), temperature (T), [CO2] and soil type were analysed by constructing response surfaces, which we termed, in accordance with their specific purpose, adaptation response surfaces (ARSs). These were created to assess the effect of adaptations through a range of plausible P, T and [CO2] perturbations. The results indicated that impacts of altered climate were predominantly negative. No single adaptation was capable of overcoming the detrimental effect of the complex interactions imposed by the P, T and [CO2] perturbations except for supplementary irrigation (sI), which reduced the potential impacts under most of the perturbations. Yet, a combination of adaptations for dealing with climate change demonstrated that effective adaptation is possible at Lleida. Combinations based on a cultivar without vernalization requirements showed good and wide adaptation potential. Few combined adaptation options performed well under rainfed conditions. However, a single sI was sufficient to develop a high adaptation potential, including options mainly based on spring wheat, current cycle duration and early sowing date. Depending on local environment (e.g. soil type), many of these adaptations can maintain current yield levels under moderate changes in T and P, and some also under strong changes. We conclude that ARSs can offer a useful tool for supporting planning of field level adaptation under conditions of high uncertainty.
|
Auteur(s) |
M. Ruiz-Ramos
1
, R. Ferrise
2
, A. Rodríguez
1
, I.J. Lorite
3, 4
, M. Bindi
2
, T.R. Carter
5
, S. Fronzek
5
, T. Palosuo
6
, N. Pirttioja
5
, P. Baranowski
7
, Samuel Buis
8
, D. Cammarano
9
, Y. Chen
6
, B. Dumont
10, 11
, F. Ewert
12, 13
, T. Gaiser
12, 13
, P. Hlavinka
14, 15
, H. Hoffmann
12, 13
, J.G. Höhn
9
, F. Jurecka
14, 15
, K.C. Kersebaum
16
, J. Krzyszczak
7
, M. Lana
16
, A. Mechiche-Alami
17
, J. Minet
18
, M. Montesino
19
, C. Nendel
16
, J.R. Porter
19
, Francoise Ruget
8
, M.A. Semenov
20
, Z. Steinmetz
21
, P. Stratonovitch
20
, I. Supit
22
, F. Tao
6
, M. Trnka
14, 15
, A. de Wit
22
, R.P. Rötter
23
1
ETSIAAB
( 517053 )
- Espagne
2
UniFI -
Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
( 148408 )
- Piazza di San Marco, 4, 50121 Firenze FI, Italie
- Italie
3
Junta de Andalucia
( 483989 )
- Espagne
4
IFAPA -
Instituto Andaluz de Investigación y Formación Agraria y Pesquera
( 514306 )
- Sevilla
- Espagne
5
SYKE -
Finnish Environment Institute
( 409463 )
- P.O.Box 140, FI-00251 Helsinki
- Finlande
6
LUKE -
Natural Resources Institute Finland
( 431710 )
- PO Box 68, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland
- Finlande
7
Institute of Agrophysics
( 14331 )
- Institute of Agrophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, 20290 Lublin 27, Dos'wiadczalna 4, Poland
- Pologne
8
EMMAH -
Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes
( 1002211 )
- INRAE Domaine Saint-Paul - Site Agroparc 228 route de l'Aérodrome CS40509 84914 AVIGNON CEDEX 9
- France
9
IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie] -
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
( 73111 )
- Centre de Nouméa, 101 Promenade Roger Laroque, BP A5, 98848 Nouméa cedex
- Nouvelle-Calédonie
10
Dpt. AgroBioChem & Terra
( 517055 )
- Belgique
11
Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech [Gembloux]
( 491190 )
- Passage des Déportés, 2
B-5030 Gembloux
- Belgique
12
Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
( 328110 )
- Regina-Pacis-Weg 3, 53113 Bonn
- Allemagne
13
INRES -
Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz
( 426256 )
- Katzenburgweg 1
D-53115 Bonn
- Allemagne
14
Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology
( 451865 )
- Tchéquie
15
CzechGlobe -
Global Change Research Centre
( 490089 )
- Global Change Research Institute CAS
Bělidla 986/4a
603 00 Brno
- Tchéquie
16
Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis
( 423708 )
- Allemagne
17
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
( 517056 )
- Suède
18
Université de Liège
( 93075 )
- Place du 20-Août, 7 4000 Liège
- Belgique
19
UCPH -
University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet
( 460939 )
- Nørregade 10, 1165 København, Danemark
- Danemark
20
Rothamsted Research
( 311842 )
- Harpenden, Hertfordshire, AL5 2JQ
- Royaume-Uni
21
RIFCON GmbH
( 498004 )
- Allemagne
22
WUR -
Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
( 356395 )
- Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen
- Pays-Bas
23
TROPAGS, Department of Crop Sciences
( 517057 )
- Allemagne
|
Volume |
159
|
Public visé |
Scientifique
|
Sous-type de document pour les Articles |
Research article
|
Langue du document |
Anglais
|
Nom de la revue |
|
Vulgarisation |
Non
|
Comité de lecture |
Oui
|
Audience |
Non spécifiée
|
Date de publication |
2017
|
Page/Identifiant |
np
|
Commentaire |
This work was financially supported by the Spanish National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA, MACSUR01-UPM), the Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (D.M. 24064/7303/15) through FACCE MACSUR − Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security, a FACCE JPI knowledge hub; MULCLIVAR, from the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (MINECO, CGL2012-38923-C02-02); the Academy of Finland (decisions: 277276 and 277403), the EU FP7 IMPRESSIONS project (grant agreement no. 603416), the NORFASYS project (decision nos. 268277 and 292944) and PLUMES project (decision nos. 277403 and 292836); project IGA AF MENDELU no. 7/2015 with the support of the Specific University Research Grant provided by the Ministry of Education, Youth Sports of the Czech Republic; the Ministry of Education, Youth Sports of the Czech Republic within the National Sustainability Programme I (NPU I), grant number LO1415 NAZV QJ1310123 the Polish National Centre for Research and Development in frame of the projects: LCAgri, contract number BIOSTRATEG1/271322/3/NCBR/2015 and GyroScan, contract number BIOSTRATEG2/298782/11/NCBR/2016.
|
Domaine(s) |
|
Financement |
|
Projet(s) Européen(s) |
|
Mots-clés |
en
Wheat adaptation, Sensitivity analysis, Crop model ensemble, Rainfed, Mediterranean cropping system, AOCK concept
|
DOI | 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009 |
ProdINRA | 385851 |
UT key WOS | 000419415700024 |
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