Article Dans Une Revue Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Année : 2017

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

1 Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences
2 Leonard Davis School of Gerontology [Los Angeles, CA, USA]
3 College of Urban and Environmental Sciences [Beijing]
4 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)
5 ESS - Department of Earth System Science [Stanford]
6 LAPC - Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry
7 UCAS - University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing]
8 UNISS | NRD - Desertification Research Centre [Sassari]
9 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
10 INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement
11 UEFE - Unité Expérimentale Fourrages et Environnement de Lusignan
12 University of Chicago
13 Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
14 Universiteit Antwerpen = University of Antwerp
15 IRRI - International Rice Research Institute [Philippines]
16 Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute
17 UM - Université de Montpellier
18 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
19 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
20 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
21 CEAB - Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes
22 GISS Climate impacts group
23 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
24 Peking University [Beijing]
25 National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture
26 Soochow University
27 UF - University of Florida [Gainesville]
Philippe Ciais
Alex C Ruane
Tao Wang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Zaichun Zhu
  • Fonction : Auteur
Senthold Asseng
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1041350

Résumé

Significance Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.

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hal-05198039 , version 1 (04-08-2025)

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Chuang Zhao, Bing Liu, Shilong Piao, Xuhui Wang, David B Lobell, et al.. Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017, 114 (35), pp.9326-9331. ⟨10.1073/pnas.1701762114⟩. ⟨hal-05198039⟩
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