Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates
Chuang Zhao
(1)
,
Bing Liu
(2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
,
Shilong Piao
(1, 7, 8)
,
Xuhui Wang
(1)
,
David B. Lobell
(9)
,
Yao Huang
(10)
,
Mengtian Huang
(1)
,
Yitong Yao
(1)
,
Simona Bassu
(11)
,
Philippe Ciais
(12, 13)
,
Jean-Louis Durand
(14)
,
Joshua Elliott
(15, 16)
,
Frank Ewert
(17, 18)
,
Ivan A. Janssens
(19)
,
Tao Li
(20)
,
Erda Lin
(21)
,
Qiang Liu
(1)
,
Pierre Martres
(22)
,
Christoph Müller
(23)
,
Shushi Peng
(1)
,
Josep Penuelas
(24, 25)
,
Alex C. Ruane
(26, 16)
,
Daniel Wallach
(27)
,
Tao Wang
(7, 8)
,
Donghai Wu
(1)
,
Zhuo Liu
(1)
,
Yan Zhu
(2, 3, 4, 5)
,
Zaichun Zhu
(1)
,
Senthold Asseng
(6)
1
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences
2 National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture
3 Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making
4 Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture
5 Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production
6 Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department
7 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity
8 Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science
9 Department of Earth System Science Center on Food Security and the Environment
10 State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany 100093, Peoples R China
11 Desertification Research Centre
12 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
13 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
14 P3F - Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères
15 University of Chicago Computation Institute
16 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
17 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
18 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
19 Department of Biology
20 IRRI - International Rice Research Institute [Philippines]
21 Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute
22 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
23 Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities
24 CREAF - Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals
25 Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
26 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
27 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
2 National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture
3 Ministry of Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making
4 Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture
5 Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production
6 Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department
7 Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity
8 Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science
9 Department of Earth System Science Center on Food Security and the Environment
10 State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany 100093, Peoples R China
11 Desertification Research Centre
12 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]
13 ICOS-ATC - ICOS-ATC
14 P3F - Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères
15 University of Chicago Computation Institute
16 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
17 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
18 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
19 Department of Biology
20 IRRI - International Rice Research Institute [Philippines]
21 Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development Institute
22 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
23 Climate Impacts and Vulnerabilities
24 CREAF - Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals
25 Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB
26 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
27 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
Bing Liu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 757516
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0222-2531
Shilong Piao
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 760330
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8057-2292
Xuhui Wang
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 775743
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0818-9816
Philippe Ciais
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 756308
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8560-4943
- IdRef : 092241700
Jean-Louis Durand
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 735133
- IdHAL : jean-louis-durand
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2751-168X
Ivan A. Janssens
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 757765
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5705-1787
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
Shushi Peng
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 770092
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5098-726X
Josep Penuelas
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 765109
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7215-0150
Tao Wang
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 802259
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4765-9377
Zhuo Liu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 783600
- ORCID : 0000-0001-5030-9231
Yan Zhu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 768149
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7342-3782
- IdRef : 120749734
Résumé
Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multi-method analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop-and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
