Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications? - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Applied Economics Année : 2017

Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?

Jean-Pierre Allegret
Cécile Couharde
Valérie Mignon
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1016632
Tovonony Razafindrabe

Résumé

While the oil currency property is clearly establis hed from a theoretical viewpoint, its existence is less clear-cut in the empirical literature. We investigate the reasons for this apparent puzzle by studying the time-varying nature of the relationship between real effective exchange rates of five oil exporters and the real price of oil in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the last two decades. Accordingly, we rely on a time-varying parameter VAR specification which allows the responses of real exchange rates to different oil price shocks to evolve over time. We find that the reason of the mixed results obtained in the empirical literature is that oil currencies follow different hybrid models in the sense that oil countries’real exchange rates may be driven by one or several sources of oil price shocks that furthermore can vary over time. In addition to structural changes affecting oil countries, structural changes arising from the oil market itself through the various, time-varying sources of oil price shocks are found to be crucial.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
revised version-final draft.pdf (2.58 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...

Dates et versions

hal-01589267 , version 1 (15-05-2018)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-01589267 , version 1

Citer

Jean-Pierre Allegret, Cécile Couharde, Valérie Mignon, Tovonony Razafindrabe. Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?. Applied Economics, 2017, 49 (18), pp.1774-1793. ⟨hal-01589267⟩
120 Consultations
243 Téléchargements

Partager

More