Equity prices and fundamentals: a DDM–APT mixed approach - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting Année : 2017

Equity prices and fundamentals: a DDM–APT mixed approach

Résumé

This paper focuses on the linkage between equity prices and fundamentals for 27 individual shares belonging to the French stock price index (CAC40). To assess fundamental value, the traditional Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is coupled with the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), which assumes that investors hold efficient portfolios. This yields a simple equity valuation relationship for which the APT determines the long-term risk premium included in the DDM. Accordingly, equity risk premia are determined by common factors reflecting the non diversifiable risk. These factors are not a priori identified by the theory, and therefore must be exhibited through an empirical analysis. Four domestic and three international common factors are found, all being among those identified by empirical analyses of the APT in the literature. While studies related to stock price indices showed that DDM fundamental values are very smooth compared to stock indices, our DDM-APT model reproduces both trends and major fluctuations of share prices. Further, as for studies based on stock indices, a mean-reverting process of equity prices towards fundamentals is highlighted, but the linear Error Correction Model (ECM) that was considered contains shortcomings suggesting a more complex adjustment process.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
IPAG_WP_2015_630.pdf (552.04 Ko) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

hal-01549758 , version 1 (13-02-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Fredj Jawadi, Georges Prat. Equity prices and fundamentals: a DDM–APT mixed approach. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2017, 49, pp.661-695. ⟨10.1007/s11156-016-0604-y⟩. ⟨hal-01549758⟩
163 Consultations
54 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

More