About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997) - Archive ouverte HAL
Rapport (Rapport De Recherche) Année : 2000

About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997)

Résumé

This note indicates that the method of output coincidence for forecasts used to determine if sectors are demand-driven or supply-driven in an input-output framework mixes two effects, the structural effect (choosing between demand and supply driven models) and the effect of an exogenous factor (final demand or added-value). The note recalls that another method is possible, the comparison of the stability of technical and allocation coefficients, generalized by the biproportional filter: if for a sector, after biproportional filtering, column coefficients are more stable than row coefficients, then this sector is declared as not supply-driven (but one cannot decide that it is demand-driven anyway), and conversely.
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Dates et versions

hal-01526521 , version 1 (23-05-2017)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-01526521 , version 1

Citer

Louis de Mesnard. About the criteria of output coincidence for forecasts to determine the orientation of the economy (application for France, 1980-1997). [Research Report] Laboratoire d'analyse et de techniques économiques(LATEC). 2000, 21 p., Table, ref. bib. : 4 p. ⟨hal-01526521⟩
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