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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2016

Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges

Résumé

Markov-based models for predicting deterioration for civil infrastructures are widely recognized as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic Bayesian network and a Markov chain is first introduced that builds up the network in a concise way. In an attempt to represent a network composed of two general classes of orthotropic steel bridges, the classical method of structured expert judgment is carried out as a quantification procedure. The first objective is to elicit indirectly transition probabilities for a Markov chain that describes how each bridge type deteriorates in time. Second, experts are asked to provide estimates on required conditional probabilities related to the Bayesian network. An in-depth analysis of the results is presented so that remarks and observations are subsequently pointed out and, finally conclusions are drawn.
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Dates et versions

hal-01517169 , version 1 (02-05-2017)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-01517169 , version 1

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A Kosgodagan, O Morales-Nápoles, J Maljaars, W Courage. Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges. Fifth International Symposium on Life-Cycle Civil Engineering, Oct 2016, Delft, Netherlands. ⟨hal-01517169⟩
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