Estimation of mortality in case of coastal flood: proposal for a new methodology and application to Storm Xynthia
Résumé
Storm Xynthia (2010) was responsible for an important coastal flood on French Atlantic
coast. This flood has impacted low-lying urbanized areas, which conducts to the death by
drowning of 41 people who were trapped inside single-story houses without chances to
escape. Review of the storm pointed out the recent growth of urbanization in potentially
flooded area, non adaptation of constructions to the risk, and predominance of elderly as a
combination of reasons to explain the human toll. Based on these facts and existing methods
of mortality estimation (dutch example of mortality function), we propose an adapted
method to predict potential number of death in case of coastal flood. To evaluate the
potential number of death, this methodology uses information about: the location and
configuration of residential houses (based on previous work, the VIE index) in order to asses
constructions as a threat for people, the characteristics of population (age) on coastal
municipalities in order to asses human vulnerability, and the occupation of houses
depending if there are residential or secondary homes. Following the dutch mortality
function, it allows to estimate a probability of death amongst a number of people exposed.
The novelty is that we can propose a probability of death for each town depending of the
above mentioned criteria. This work has been validated using information about storm
Xynthia. It gives good correlation with the toll of this event (for three impacted towns of Baie
de l’Aiguillon: La Faute-sur-Mer, l’Aiguillon-sur-Mer and Charron). It has been applied to a
non impacted but potentially vulnerable area, Noirmoutier Island, to assess its vulnerability
to futures coastal flood. The usefulness of the method is based on the possibility to use it in
a Cost-Efficiency Analysis (CEA) in a way of supporting decision process at a local scale. It
allows to compare different scenarios of vulnerability reduction for houses and to evaluate
the number of death with and without measures. It gives a number of life potentially saved
with the measure. The authors conducted this type of CEA comparing four vulnerability
reduction measures. Presently applied to the two study areas, the CEA could be applied to
other territories in order to identify the best solutions in order to reduce vulnerability for
people, depending on local characteristics of population and danger of buildings. It will be
useful for land use planning, for example for European flood directive.