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Article Dans Une Revue Geophysical Journal International Année : 2017

Dynamic rupture simulations on a fault network in the Corinth Rift

Résumé

The Corinth rift (Greece) is made of a complex network of fault segments, typically 10–20 km long separated by stepovers. Assessing the maximum magnitude possible in this region requires accounting for multisegment rupture. Here we apply numerical models of dynamic rupture to quantify the probability of a multisegment rupture in the rift, based on the knowledge of the fault geometry and on the magnitude of the historical and palaeoearthquakes. We restrict our application to dynamic rupture on the most recent and active fault network of the western rift, located on the southern coast. We first define several models, varying the main physical parameters that control the rupture propagation. We keep the regional stress field and stress drop constant, and we test several fault geometries, several positions of the faults in their seismic cycle, several values of the critical distance (and so several fracture energies) and two different hypocentres (thus testing two directivity hypothesis). We obtain different scenarios in terms of the number of ruptured segments and the final magnitude (between M = 5.8 for a single segment rupture to M = 6.4 for a whole network rupture), and find that the main parameter controlling the variability of the scenarios is the fracture energy. We then use a probabilistic approach to quantify the probability of each generated scenario. To do that, we implement a logical tree associating a weight to each model input hypothesis. Combining these weights, we compute the probability of occurrence of each scenario, and show that the multisegment scenarios are very likely (52 per cent), but that the whole network rupture scenario is unlikely (14 per cent).
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Dates et versions

hal-01456326 , version 1 (14-02-2017)

Identifiants

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Virginie Durand, Sébastien Hok, Aurélien Boiselet, Pascal Bernard, Oona Scotti. Dynamic rupture simulations on a fault network in the Corinth Rift. Geophysical Journal International, 2017, 208, pp.1611 - 1622. ⟨10.1093/gji/ggw466⟩. ⟨hal-01456326⟩

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