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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2016

Does Trump's election victory divide US stock market into winners and losers?

Résumé

Many analysts, who had anticipated a great market anxiety resulting in market-wide stock price losses over the event of a Trump presidential victory, remain puzzling through why the market rebounded since the next election day. Whatever the reason, investors appear to be digesting Trump's win speedier than expected. The present paper examines, at sectoral level, the behavior of a variety of US stock price indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite) surrounding the announcement of the Republican candidate's win on 08 November 2016. Although all companies face ongoing uncertainty, the 2016 US election outcome is likely to divide the stock market into losing (technology and utilities) and winning sectors (health care, oil and gas, real estate, defense, financials and consumer goods and services). Judging by the campaign promises, the best-performing companies are generally those that will gain directly from Trump's proposals revolving around rising infrastructure spending, renegotiating trade agreements, loosening financial regulation, easing restrictions on energy production, and repealing Obamacare.
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Dates et versions

hal-01419295 , version 1 (19-12-2016)
hal-01419295 , version 2 (01-03-2017)

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Jamal Bouoiyour, Refk Selmi. Does Trump's election victory divide US stock market into winners and losers?. 2016. ⟨hal-01419295v1⟩
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