Segmental dynamic factor analysis for time series of curves - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Statistics and Computing Année : 2017

Segmental dynamic factor analysis for time series of curves

Résumé

A new approach is introduced in this article for describing and visualizing time series of curves, where each curve has the particularity of being subject to changes in regime. For this purpose, the curves are represented by a regression model including a latent segmentation, and their temporal evolution is modeled through a Gaussian random walk over low dimensional factors of the regression coefficients. The resulting model is neither else than a particular state-space model involving discrete and continuous latent variables, whose parameters are estimated across a sequence of curves through a dedicated variational Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The experimental study conducted on simulated data and real time series of curves has shown encouraging results in terms of visualization of their temporal evolution and forecasting.
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Dates et versions

hal-01383174 , version 1 (18-10-2016)
hal-01383174 , version 2 (20-10-2017)

Identifiants

Citer

Allou Same, Gérard Govaert. Segmental dynamic factor analysis for time series of curves. Statistics and Computing, 2017, 27 (6), pp.1617-1637. ⟨10.1007/s11222-016-9707-5⟩. ⟨hal-01383174v2⟩
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