Inferring R 0 in emerging epidemics—the effect of common population structure is small - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of the Royal Society Interface Année : 2016

Inferring R 0 in emerging epidemics—the effect of common population structure is small

Résumé

When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are estimated from the observed incidence of new cases and information about the infectious contact structures of the population in which the disease spreads. However, the relevant infectious contact structures for new, emerging infections are often unknown or hard to obtain. Here, we show that, for many common true underlying heterogeneous contact structures, the simplification to neglect such structures and instead assume that all contacts are made homogeneously in the whole population results in conservative estimates for R0 and the required control effort. This means that robust control policies can be planned during the early stages of an outbreak, using such conservative estimates of the required control effort.

Dates et versions

hal-01374189 , version 1 (29-09-2016)

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Citer

Pieter Trapman, Frank Ball, Jean-Stéphane Dhersin, Viet Chi Tran, Jacco Wallinga, et al.. Inferring R 0 in emerging epidemics—the effect of common population structure is small. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2016, 13 (121), ⟨10.1098/rsif.2016.0288⟩. ⟨hal-01374189⟩
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