Artificial releases of Wolbachia-infected Aedes mosquitoes have been under study in the past years for fighting vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and zika. Several strains of this bacterium cause cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) and can also affect their host's fecun-dity or lifespan, while highly reducing vector competence for the main arboviruses. We measure the success of a field release by the sustained rate of Wol-bachia infection it achieves (usually 1-invasion-or 0-extinction). Space plays a crucial role in the choice of the release protocol and the problem contains many uncertainties, on estimating biological parameters of the native population or of the introduced individuals as well as on assessing the population distribution after a release. We build a framework based on existing reaction-diffusion models for the uncertainty quantification in this context, obtain both theoretical and numerical lower bounds for the probability of release success and give new quantitative results on the one dimensional case.