A supermartingale approach to Gaussian process based sequential design of experiments
Résumé
Gaussian process (GP) models have become a well-established framework
for the adaptive design of costly experiments, and notably of computer
experiments. GP-based sequential designs have been found practically
efficient for various objectives, such as global optimization
(estimating the global maximum or maximizer(s) of a function),
reliability analysis (estimating a probability of failure) or the
estimation of level sets and excursion sets. In this paper, we study
the consistency of an important class of sequential designs, known as
stepwise uncertainty reduction (SUR) strategies. Our approach relies
on the key observation that the sequence of residual uncertainty
measures, in SUR strategies, is generally a supermartingale with
respect to the filtration generated by the observations. This
observation enables us to establish generic consistency results for a
broad class of SUR strategies. The consistency of several popular
sequential design strategies is then obtained by means of this general
result. Notably, we establish the consistency of two SUR strategies
proposed by Bect, Ginsbourger, Li, Picheny and Vazquez (Stat. Comp.,
2012)---to the best of our knowledge, these are the first proofs of
consistency for GP-based sequential design algorithms dedicated to the
estimation of excursion sets and their measure. We also establish a
new, more general proof of consistency for the expected improvement
algorithm for global optimization which, unlike previous results in
the literature, applies to any GP with continuous sample paths.
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