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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2016

ABC random forests for Bayesian parameter inference

Résumé

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has grown into a standard methodology to handle Bayesian inference in models associated with intractable likelihood functions. Most ABC implementations require the selection of a summary statistic as the data itself is too large or too complex to be compared to simulated realisations from the assumed model. The dimension of this statistic is generally constrained to be close to the dimension of the model parameter for efficiency reasons. Furthermore, the tolerance level that governs the acceptance or rejection of parameter values needs to be calibrated and the range of calibration techniques available so far is mostly based on asymptotic arguments. We propose here to conduct Bayesian inference based on an arbitrarily large vector of summary statistics without imposing a selection of the relevant components and bypassing the derivation of a tolerance. The approach relies on the random forest methodology of Breiman (2001) when applied to regression. We advocate the derivation of a new random forest for each component of the parameter vector, a tool from which an approximation to the marginal posterior distribution can be derived. Correlations between parameter components are handled by separate random forests. This technology offers significant gains in terms of robustness to the choice of the summary statistics and of computing time, when compared with more standard ABC solutions.

Dates et versions

hal-01337189 , version 1 (24-06-2016)
hal-01337189 , version 2 (19-12-2018)

Identifiants

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Jean-Michel Marin, Louis Raynal, Pierre Pudlo, Mathieu Ribatet, Christian P. Robert. ABC random forests for Bayesian parameter inference. 2016. ⟨hal-01337189v1⟩
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