Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces
Nina Pirttioja
(1)
,
Timothy R. Carter
(1)
,
Stefan Fronzek
(1)
,
Marco Bindi
(2)
,
Holger Hoffmann
(3)
,
Taru Palosuo
(4)
,
Margarita Ruiz-Ramos
(5)
,
Fulu Tao
(4)
,
Miroslav Trnka
(6, 7)
,
Marco Acutis
(8)
,
Senthold Asseng
(9)
,
Piotr Baranowski
(10)
,
Bruno Basso
(11)
,
Per Bodin
(12)
,
Samuel Buis
(13)
,
Davide Cammarano
(14)
,
Paola Deligios
(15)
,
Marie-France Destain
(16)
,
Benjamin Dumont
(16)
,
Frank Ewert
(3)
,
Roberto Ferrise
(2)
,
Louis Francois
(16)
,
Thomas Gaiser
(3)
,
Petr Hlavinka
(6, 17)
,
Ingrid Jacquemin
(16)
,
Kurt Christian Kersebaum
(18)
,
Chris Kollas
(18)
,
Jaromir Krzyszczak
(10)
,
Ignacio J. Lorite
(19)
,
Julien Minet
(16)
,
M. Ines Minguez
(5)
,
Manuel Montesino
(20)
,
Marco Moriondo
(21)
,
Christoph Muller
(22)
,
Claas Nendel
(18)
,
Isik Ozturk
(23)
,
Alessia Perego
(8)
,
Alfredo Rodriguez
(5)
,
Alex C. Ruane
(24, 25)
,
Francoise Ruget
(13)
,
Mattia Sanna
(8)
,
Mikhail A. Semenov
(26)
,
Cezary Slawinski
(10)
,
Pierre Stratonovitch
(26)
,
Iwan Supit
(27)
,
Katharina Waha
(22, 28)
,
Enli Wang
(28)
,
Lianhai Wu
(26)
,
Zhigan Zhao
(28, 29)
,
Reimund P. Rötter
(30)
1
SYKE -
Finnish Environment Institute
2 UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
3 INRES
4 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
5 CEIGRAM - Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales
6 Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology
7 v.v.i
8 UNIMI - Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan
9 UF - University of Florida [Gainesville]
10 Institute of Agrophysics
11 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
12 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
13 EMMAH - Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes
14 The James Hutton Institute
15 UNISS - Università degli Studi di Sassari = University of Sassari [Sassari]
16 Université de Liège
17 v.v.i.
18 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
19 IFAPA
20 UCPH - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet
21 IBIMET - Istituto di Biometeorologia [Firenze]
22 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
23 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
24 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
25 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
26 Rothamsted Research
27 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
28 CSIRO Agriculture Flagship
29 CAU - China Agricultural University
30 INRES
2 UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
3 INRES
4 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
5 CEIGRAM - Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales
6 Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology
7 v.v.i
8 UNIMI - Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan
9 UF - University of Florida [Gainesville]
10 Institute of Agrophysics
11 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
12 Skane University Hospital [Lund]
13 EMMAH - Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes
14 The James Hutton Institute
15 UNISS - Università degli Studi di Sassari = University of Sassari [Sassari]
16 Université de Liège
17 v.v.i.
18 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
19 IFAPA
20 UCPH - University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet
21 IBIMET - Istituto di Biometeorologia [Firenze]
22 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
23 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
24 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
25 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
26 Rothamsted Research
27 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
28 CSIRO Agriculture Flagship
29 CAU - China Agricultural University
30 INRES
Stefan Fronzek
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 774980
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2478-8050
Samuel Buis
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 743153
- IdHAL : samuel-buis
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8676-5447
- IdRef : 253121485
Chris Kollas
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 977415
Claas Nendel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772081
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7608-9097
Mikhail A. Semenov
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 774453
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1561-7113
Résumé
This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to + 9 degrees C) and precipitation (-50 to + 50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development
Domaines
Sciences agricoles
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)