Insights into Persistence Mechanisms of a Zoonotic Virus in Bat Colonies Using a Multispecies Metapopulation Model
Résumé
Rabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus is the most frequently
reported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be the reservoir of European bat Lyssavirus type 1
(EBLV-1). To date, the role of other bat species in EBLV-1 epidemiology and persistence remains unknown. Here, we built an
EBLV-12transmission model based on local observations of a three-cave and four-bat species (Myotis capaccinii, Myotis
myotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system in the Balearic Islands, for which a 1995–2011
serological dataset indicated the continuous presence of EBLV-1. Eptesicus serotinus was never observed in the system
during the 16-year follow-up and therefore was not included in the model. We used the model to explore virus persistence
mechanisms and to assess the importance of each bat species in the transmission dynamics. We found that EBLV-1 could
not be sustained if transmission between M. schreibersii and other bat species was eliminated, suggesting that this species
serves as a regional reservoir. Global sensitivity analysis using Sobol’s method revealed that following the rate of
autumn2winter infectious contacts, M. schreibersii’s incubation- and immune-period durations, but not the infectious
period length, were the most relevant factors driving virus persistence.
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