Simulation of crop choice dynamics: an application of nested master-equation models
Résumé
One of the most intractable problems faced by decision-makers is the possible effect of policy tools on the decisions of actors operating within the environment of interest. The paper contributes ta the study of this issue by reporting a novel modelling approach ta the analysis of farmer - environment - policy interactions, that of using nested Master Equations. The model simulates a multi-function assessment of various economic, technological and environmental constraints affecting farmers in the Argolid region of southern Greece. We obtain an approximate eigenvector of a dynamically variable transition matrix of infinite dimension. This eigenvector represents a probability density function in thirteen dimensions that governs crop choice behaviour on a theoretical representation of the Argolid Plain. Regularities observed in the model's output resonate clearly with observations from sociological and anthropological fieldwork which were not knowingly integrated at the design phase, thus providing an independent empirical check on the work. The output from the simulation model is compared with observations from the field, and the technique is discussed in terms of its novelty and significance as a micro-simulation too1.
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