Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies : the role of expectation schemes - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Chapitre D'ouvrage Année : 2012

Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies : the role of expectation schemes

Résumé

The highly disputed effects of agricultural trade liberalization are mostly simulated with static models. Our main objective in this paper is to evaluate the robustness of the static simulation results to the consistent modeling of dynamic behaviors and to the linked specification of price/return expectations. Focusing on a complete trade liberalization scenario of arable crop markets by developed countries, we find that available static results are quite robust to dynamic specifications and to most expectation schemes. Endogenous market fluctuations due to expectation errors may appear following trade liberalization. These fluctuations are nevertheless limited by the many feedback effects revealed by our general equilibrium framework.
Fichier non déposé

Dates et versions

hal-01208870 , version 1 (02-10-2015)

Identifiants

Citer

Fabienne Femenia, Alexandre Gohin. Dynamic modelling of agricultural policies : the role of expectation schemes. Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices, IOS Press, 32 p., 2012, 978-1-61499-036-9. ⟨10.3233/978-1-61499-037-6-13⟩. ⟨hal-01208870⟩

Collections

INRA UNAM INRAE
61 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More