Multi-criteria spatialization of soil organic carbon sequestration potential from agricultural intensification in Senegal
Abstract
On the eve of the 15th climate negotiations conference in Copenhagen,
the pressure to assess all climate mitigation options is mounting. In this study, a
bio-physic model and a socio-economic model were designed and coupled to assess
the carbon sequestration potential of agricultural intensification in Senegal. The
biophysicalmodel is a multiple linear regression, calibrated and tested on a dataset of
long-term agricultural trials established in West Africa. The socio-economic model
integrates both financial and environmental costs related to considered practice
changes. Both models are spatially explicit and the resulting spatial patterns were
computed and displayed over Senegal with a geographic information system. The national potential from large-scale intensification was assessed at 0.65–0.83 MtC.
With regards to local-scaled intensification as local projects, the most profitable areas
were identified in agricultural expansion regions (especially Casamance), while the
areas that meet the current financial additionality criteria of the Clean Development
Mechanism were located in the northern part of the Peanut Basin. Using the current
relevant mode of carbon valuation (Certified Emission Reductions), environmental
benefits are small compared to financial benefits. This picture is radically changed
if “avoided deforestation”, a likely consequence of agricultural intensification, is
accounted for as the greenhouse gases sink capacity of projects increases by an
average of a hundred-fold over Senegal.