The influence of the legislative redistricting of 2009: Methodological issues and first insights
Résumé
In 2009, following a legislative redistricting lead by the right-wing, 18.1% of the French cities have moved from one constituency to another. The aim of this note is to provide some methodological issues about this redistricting and some insights about its influence on the electoral results. The main result goes in the sense of a partisan manipulation: due to the redistricting, the left-wing lost 14 constituencies. Whereas it actually gained 333 constituencies in 2012, it would have gained 347 constituencies if the redistricting had remained unchanged between 2007 and 2012. However, the difference between these two proportions is not statistically significant. Consequently, even if it appears as if the left-wing lost out from the 2009 redistricting, we conclude that it did not have a significant effect on the extent of the left-wing's victory.
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Loading...