Carbonation affects the performance, serviceability and safety of reinforced concrete (RC) structures when they are placed in environments with important CO2 concentrations. Since the kinetics of carbonation depends on parameters that could be affected by climate change (temperature, atmospheric CO2 pressure and relative humidity), this study aims at quantifying the effect of climate change on the durability of RC structures subjected to carbonation risks. This work couples a carbonation finite element model with a comprehensive reliability approach to consider the uncertainties inherent to the deterioration process. The proposed methodology is applied to the probabilistic assessment of carbonation effects for several cities in France under various climate change scenarios. It was found that climate change and local relative humidity have a significant impact on corrosion initiation risks.