Inferring an Augmented Bayesian Network to Confront a Complex Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model with Durability Studies: Application to [i]Bacillus Cereus[/i] on a Courgette Puree Production Chain - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Risk Analysis Année : 2013

Inferring an Augmented Bayesian Network to Confront a Complex Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model with Durability Studies: Application to [i]Bacillus Cereus[/i] on a Courgette Puree Production Chain

Résumé

The Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach is traditionally used in food safety risk assessment to study quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models. When experimental data are available, performing Bayesian inference is a good alternative approach that allows backward calculation in a stochastic QMRA model to update the experts' knowledge about the microbial dynamics of a given food-borne pathogen. In this article, we propose a complex example where Bayesian inference is applied to a high-dimensional second-order QMRA model. The case study is a farm-to-fork QMRA model considering genetic diversity of [i]Bacillus cereus[/i] in a cooked, pasteurized, and chilled courgette puree. Experimental data are [i]Bacillus cereus[/i] concentrations measured in packages of courgette purees stored at different time-temperature profiles after pasteurization. To perform a Bayesian inference, we first built an augmented Bayesian network by linking a second-order QMRA model to the available contamination data. We then ran a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to update all the unknown concentrations and unknown quantities of the augmented model. About 25% of the prior beliefs are strongly updated, leading to a reduction in uncertainty. Some updates interestingly question the QMRA model.

Dates et versions

hal-01000663 , version 1 (04-06-2014)

Identifiants

Citer

Clémence C. Rigaux, Sophie S. Ancelet, Frederic F. Carlin, Christophe C. Nguyen The, Isabelle I. Albert. Inferring an Augmented Bayesian Network to Confront a Complex Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model with Durability Studies: Application to [i]Bacillus Cereus[/i] on a Courgette Puree Production Chain. Risk Analysis, 2013, 33 (5), pp.877-892. ⟨10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01888.x⟩. ⟨hal-01000663⟩
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