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Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Climate Année : 2010

Relation between Large-Scale Circulation and European Winter Temperature: Does It Hold under Warmer Climate?

Résumé

The idea of using large-scale information to predict local climate variability is widely exploited in climate change impact studies as an alternative to computationally expensive high-resolution models. This approach implies the hypothesis that the statistical relationship between large-scale climate states and local variables defined for the present-day climate remains valid in the altered climate. In this paper, the concept of weather regimes is used to deduce a relationship between large-scale circulation and European winter temperature. The change in temperature with increased greenhouse gases is, however, not homogeneous among the individual regimes. As a result, the impact of the weather regimes on local temperature changes varies in the future, limiting its usefulness for refining temperature changes to the small scale.
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Dates et versions

hal-00994268 , version 1 (22-05-2014)

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Katerna Goubanova, Laurent Li, Pascal Yiou, F. Codron. Relation between Large-Scale Circulation and European Winter Temperature: Does It Hold under Warmer Climate?. Journal of Climate, 2010, 23 (13), pp.3752-3760. ⟨10.1175/2010jcli3166.1⟩. ⟨hal-00994268⟩
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