We study the probabilistic coherent spaces - a denotational semantics interpreting programs by power series with non negative real coefficients. We prove that this semantics is adequate for a probabilistic extension of the untyped λ-calculus: the probability that a term reduces to ahead normal form is equal to its denotation computed on a suitable set of values. The result gives, in a probabilistic setting, a quantitative refinement to the adequacy of Scott's model for untyped λ-calculus.