center dot Serum concentrations of rituximab influence its clinical efficacy in follicular lymphoma (FL), but its concentration-effect relationship has not been described by pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modelling. center dot The genetic polymorphism of FCGR3A influences rituximab efficacy and its in vitro concentration-effect relationship. center dot Increasing rituximab dose and/or number of infusions may lead to a better clinical response in FL. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS center dot This study is the first to describe the concentration-effect relationship of rituximab in populations of FL patients. center dot This PK-PD model relates progression-free survival with rituximab concentrations and takes into account the influence of FCGR3A polymorphism. center dot Clinical trials testing new dosing regimens of rituximab can be designed using this PK-PD model. AIM Rituximab has dramatically improved the survival of patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphomas (NHL), but the dosing regimen currently used should be optimized. However, the concentration-effect relationship of rituximab has never been described by pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) modelling, precluding the simulation of new dosing regimens. The aim of this study was to develop a PK-PD model of rituximab in relapsed/resistant follicular NHL (FL). METHODS A model describing the relationship between rituximab concentrations and progression-free survival (PFS) was developed using data extracted from the pivotal study, which evaluated 151 relapsed/resistant FL patients. The influence of FCGR3A genetic polymorphism on the efficacy of rituximab was quantified using data from 87 relapsed/resistant FL patients. The predictive performance of the model was analysed using two independent datasets: a study that evaluated rituximab combined with chemotherapy [rituximab, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, adriamycin and prednisone (R-CHOP)] in 334 relapsed/resistant FL patients and a study that evaluated rituximab monotherapy in 47 asymptomatic FL patients with known FCGR3A genotype. RESULTS For R-CHOP, observed and model-predicted PFS (90% confidence interval) at 24 months were 0.50 and 0.48 (0.40, 0.56), respectively, for the observation arm, and 0.62 and 0.59 (0.50, 0.65), respectively, for the rituximab maintenance arm. For rituximab monotherapy, observed and predicted PFS at 24 months were 0.67 and 0.63, respectively, for FCGR3A-V/V patients, and 0.41 and 0.36 (0.25, 0.49), respectively, for FCGR3A-F carriers. CONCLUSIONS Our model provides a satisfactory prediction of PFS at 24 months. It can be used to simulate new dosing regimens of rituximab in populations of FL patients and should improve the design of future clinical trials.