Continuous cascade models for asset returns - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Année : 2008

Continuous cascade models for asset returns

Résumé

In this paper, we make a short overview of continuous cascade models recently introduced to model asset return fluctuations. We show that these models account in a very parcimonious manner for most of 'stylized facts' of financial time-series. We review in more details the simplest continuous cascade namely the log-normal multifractal random walk (MRW). It can simply be considered as a stochastic volatility model where the (log-) volatility memory has a peculiar 'logarithmic' shape. This model possesses some appealing stability properties with respect to time aggregation. We describe how one can estimate it using a GMM method and we present some applications to volatility and (VaR) Value at Risk forecasting.

Dates et versions

hal-00604449 , version 1 (29-06-2011)

Identifiants

Citer

Emmanuel Bacry, Alexey Kozhemyak, J.-F. Muzy. Continuous cascade models for asset returns. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2008, pp.156-199. ⟨10.1016/j.jedc.2007.01.024⟩. ⟨hal-00604449⟩
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