What can we tell about monetary policy synchronization and interdependence over the 2007-2009 global financial crisis?
Résumé
We investigate the synchronization and nonlinear adjustment dynamics of short-term interest rates for France, the UK and the US using the bi-directional feedback measures proposed by Geweke (1982) and appropriate smooth transition error-correction models (STECM). We find strong evidence of continual increases in bilateral synchroni-zation of these rates from 2005 to 2009 as well as of their lead-lag causal interactions with a slight dominance of the US rate. Our results also indicate that short-term interest rates converge towards a common long-run equilibrium in a nonlinear manner and their time dynamics exhibit regime-switching behavior.
Domaines
Finance quantitative [q-fin.CP]Origine | Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s) |
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