Migration model of various socio-demographic Romanian categories
Résumé
Globalizing and internationalizing markets generates new migration attitudes, an increased fluidity of the regional movements, in which temporary migration phenomena have got a special importance. This paper proposes a framework to capture how perceived migration opportunities and preferences of people are correlated via a concept that we called “affinity” for a destination country. The basic idea is that the decision-making process of a potential migrant is motivated by the maximization of this affinity. The affinity, a fuzzy concept, is defined like a function of the accessibility, the attractiveness and the expected duration of visit in a country. A questionnaire based on stated-preferences is elaborated using Design of Experiments method and collected preferences done by a score function are used to model the accessibility and the attractiveness of a foreign country (e.g. for Romania countries from West Europe). Extreme values of accessibility and attractiveness are used to define the fuzzy set variables. A system of rules is defined by using the experience of the experts in migration and a classification of destinations based on affinity values can be done for each socio-demographic category. By using the principle of the gravity theory, a correlation may be done between the flows distribution in Europe and the number of potential migrants per category