Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds.
Katharine Keogan
(1)
,
Francis Daunt
(2)
,
Sarah Wanless
(3)
,
Richard A. Phillips
(4)
,
Craig A. Walling
(1)
,
Philippa Agnew
(5)
,
David G. Ainley
(6)
,
Tycho Anker-Nilssen
(7)
,
Grant Ballard
(8)
,
Robert T. Barrett
(9)
,
Kerry J. Barton
(10)
,
Claus Bech
(11)
,
Peter Becker
(12)
,
Per-Arvid Berglund
(13)
,
Loïc Bollache
(14)
,
Alexander L. Bond
(15, 16)
,
Sandra Bouwhuis
(12)
,
Russell W. Bradley
(8)
,
Zofia M. Burr
(17)
,
Kees Camphuysen
(18)
,
Paulo Catry
(19)
,
André Chiaradia
(20, 21)
,
Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard
(7)
,
Richard Cuthbert
(22)
,
Nina Dehnhard
(23)
,
Sébastien Descamps
(24)
,
Tony Diamond
(25)
,
George Divoky
,
Hugh Drummond
(26)
,
Katie M. Dugger
(27)
,
Michael J. Dunn
(4)
,
Louise Emmerson
(28)
,
Kjell Einar Erikstad
(29, 30)
,
Jérôme Fort
(31)
,
William Fraser
(32)
,
Meritxell Genovart
(33)
,
Olivier Gilg
(34)
,
Jacob González-Solís
(35)
,
José Pedro Granadeiro
(36)
,
David Grémillet
(37, 38)
,
Jannik Hansen
(39)
,
Sveinn A. Hanssen
(7)
,
Mike Harris
(2)
,
April Hedd
(40)
,
Jefferson Hinke
(41)
,
José Manuel Igual
(33)
,
Jaime Jahncke
(8)
,
Ian Jones
(16)
,
Peter J. Kappes
(42)
,
Johannes Lang
(43)
,
Magdalene Langset
(7)
,
Amélie Lescroël
(37)
,
Svein-Håkon Lorentsen
(7)
,
Phil O’b. Lyver
(10)
,
Mark Mallory
(44)
,
Børge Moe
(7)
,
William A. Montevecchi
(45)
,
David Monticelli
(46)
,
Carolyn Mostello
(47)
,
Mark Newell
(2)
,
Lisa Nicholson
(48)
,
Ian Nisbet
(49)
,
Olof Olsson
(50)
,
Daniel Oro
(33)
,
Vivian Pattison
(51)
,
Maud Poisbleau
(52)
,
Tanya Pyk
(53)
,
Flavio Quintana
(54)
,
Jaime A. Ramos
(55)
,
Raül Ramos
(56)
,
Tone Kirstin Reiertsen
(57)
,
Cristina Rodríguez
(26)
,
Peter Ryan
(58)
,
Ana Sanz-Aguilar
(33)
,
Niels M. Schmidt
(59)
,
Paula Shannon
(60)
,
Benoit Sittler
(61)
,
Colin Southwell
(28)
,
Christopher Surman
(48)
,
Walter S. Svagelj
(62)
,
Wayne Trivelpiece
,
Pete Warzybok
(8)
,
Yutaka Watanuki
(63)
,
Henri Weimerskirch
(64)
,
Peter R. Wilson
(10)
,
Andrew G. Wood
(4)
,
Albert B. Phillimore
(1)
,
Sue Lewis
(1, 2)
1
Institute of Evolutionary Biology
2 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Edinburgh]
3 UKCEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
4 BAS - British Antarctic Survey
5 Oamaru Blue Penguin Colony
6 H.T. Harvey & Associates
7 NINA - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
8 PBCS - Point Blue Conservation Science
9 Department of Natural Sciences
10 Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research [Lincoln]
11 NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology [Trondheim]
12 Institute of Avian Research
13 Department of Aquatic Resources
14 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
15 RSPB Centre for Conservation Science
16 Department of Biology
17 UNIS - The University Centre in Svalbard
18 Department of Coastal Systems
19 MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre
20 Phillip Island Nature Parks [Australia]
21 School of Biological Sciences
22 RSPB Centre for Conservation Science
23 Behavioural Ecology and Ecophysiology Group
24 NPRI - Norvegian Polar Research Institute
25 UNB - University of New Brunswick
26 Instituto de Ecología
27 Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
28 AAD - Australian Antarctic Division
29 High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
30 Centre for Conservation Biology
31 LIENSs - LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés
32 Polar Oceans Research Group [USA]
33 IMEDEA - Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats = Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados
34 BGS - Biogéosciences [UMR 6282]
35 Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat i Departament de Biologia Animal
36 CESAM
37 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
38 DST-NRF Centre of Excellence
39 Department of Bioscience [Roskilde]
40 Wildlife Research Division
41 Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division
42 Department of Fisheries and Wildlife
43 Clinic for Birds, Reptiles, Amphibians and Fish
44 Biology
45 Department of Psychology, Biology and Ocean Sciences
46 MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre
47 Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife
48 Halfmoon Biosciences
49 I. C. T. Nisbet & Company
50 Stockholm Resilience Centre
51 Laskeek Bay Conservation Society
52 Department of Biology, Behavioural Ecology and Ecophysiology Group
53 Deakin Centre for Integrative Ecology
54 IBIOMAR - Instituto de Biología de Organismos Marinos [Chubut]
55 IMAR-Institute of Marine Research, Department of Zoology
56 Departament de Biologia Animal
57 Norwegian Polar Institute
58 DST/NRF Centre of Excellence
59 Arctic Research Centre
60 National Audubon Society Seabird Restoration Program
61 Chair Nature Protection and Landscape Ecology
62 IIMyC - Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras [Mar del Plata]
63 Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences
64 CEBC - Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372
2 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Edinburgh]
3 UKCEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
4 BAS - British Antarctic Survey
5 Oamaru Blue Penguin Colony
6 H.T. Harvey & Associates
7 NINA - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
8 PBCS - Point Blue Conservation Science
9 Department of Natural Sciences
10 Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research [Lincoln]
11 NTNU - Norwegian University of Science and Technology [Trondheim]
12 Institute of Avian Research
13 Department of Aquatic Resources
14 LCE - Laboratoire Chrono-environnement (UMR 6249)
15 RSPB Centre for Conservation Science
16 Department of Biology
17 UNIS - The University Centre in Svalbard
18 Department of Coastal Systems
19 MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre
20 Phillip Island Nature Parks [Australia]
21 School of Biological Sciences
22 RSPB Centre for Conservation Science
23 Behavioural Ecology and Ecophysiology Group
24 NPRI - Norvegian Polar Research Institute
25 UNB - University of New Brunswick
26 Instituto de Ecología
27 Oregon Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
28 AAD - Australian Antarctic Division
29 High North Research Centre for Climate and the Environment
30 Centre for Conservation Biology
31 LIENSs - LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés
32 Polar Oceans Research Group [USA]
33 IMEDEA - Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avancats = Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados
34 BGS - Biogéosciences [UMR 6282]
35 Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat i Departament de Biologia Animal
36 CESAM
37 CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
38 DST-NRF Centre of Excellence
39 Department of Bioscience [Roskilde]
40 Wildlife Research Division
41 Antarctic Ecosystem Research Division
42 Department of Fisheries and Wildlife
43 Clinic for Birds, Reptiles, Amphibians and Fish
44 Biology
45 Department of Psychology, Biology and Ocean Sciences
46 MARE - Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre
47 Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife
48 Halfmoon Biosciences
49 I. C. T. Nisbet & Company
50 Stockholm Resilience Centre
51 Laskeek Bay Conservation Society
52 Department of Biology, Behavioural Ecology and Ecophysiology Group
53 Deakin Centre for Integrative Ecology
54 IBIOMAR - Instituto de Biología de Organismos Marinos [Chubut]
55 IMAR-Institute of Marine Research, Department of Zoology
56 Departament de Biologia Animal
57 Norwegian Polar Institute
58 DST/NRF Centre of Excellence
59 Arctic Research Centre
60 National Audubon Society Seabird Restoration Program
61 Chair Nature Protection and Landscape Ecology
62 IIMyC - Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras [Mar del Plata]
63 Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences
64 CEBC - Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372
Katharine Keogan
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Grant Ballard
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-8604-7066
Loïc Bollache
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Sandra Bouwhuis
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- ORCID : 0000-0003-4023-1578
Sébastien Descamps
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- ORCID : 0000-0003-0590-9013
George Divoky
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Jérôme Fort
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Meritxell Genovart
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Olivier Gilg
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-9083-4492
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David Grémillet
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- IdHAL : david-gremillet
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Amélie Lescroël
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-9030-6593
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Maud Poisbleau
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Niels M. Schmidt
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- PersonId : 762826
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4166-6218
Wayne Trivelpiece
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Henri Weimerskirch
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- ORCID : 0000-0002-0457-586X
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Albert B. Phillimore
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Résumé
Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity1, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions2. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey3. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers4. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction5. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0.020 days yr−1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (−0.272 days °C−1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources2.
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