Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics - Botanique et bio-informatique de l'architecture des plantes et des végétations Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Global Change Biology Année : 2024

Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics

Shin‐ichiro Aiba
Saara J Dewalt
John Dwyer
Janet Franklin
Takashi S Kohyama
Christophe Menkes
Dan J Metcalfe
Helen Murphy
  • Fonction : Auteur
Robert Muscarella
Gregory M Plunkett
Chanel Sam
  • Fonction : Auteur
Edmund Tanner
Benton N Taylor
Jill Thompson
Tamara Ticktin
Marika V Tuiwawa
  • Fonction : Auteur
Maria Uriarte
Edward L Webb

Résumé

Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.
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hal-04577783 , version 1 (16-05-2024)

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Thomas Ibanez, David Bauman, Shin‐ichiro Aiba, Thomas Arsouze, Peter J Bellingham, et al.. Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics. Global Change Biology, 2024, 30, ⟨10.1111/gcb.17317⟩. ⟨hal-04577783⟩
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