Flash flood impacts nowcasting within the PICS project (2018-2022): End-users involvement and first results
Résumé
Flash-flood events can have catastrophic socio-economic consequences. To reduce their impacts, it is of crucial importance to set up efficient warning systems. Although first operational flash-flood warning systems have recently been implemented, some limitations are clearly identified by end-users: non-exhaustive geographic coverage, limited lead times, warnings based on hazard assessment instead of risk. However, the desirable improvements raise real scientific challenges in various domains. In this context, the PICS (Prevision immediate des impacts des crues soudaines – Flash-flood events impacts nowcasting - 2018-2022) project gathers French scientific teams with varied skills (meteorologists, hydrologists, hydraulicians, economists, social geographers) and operational stakeholders (civil security, local authorities, insurance companies, managers of hydroelectric facilities and transport network). Funded by the French national research agency (ANR), it aims to develop and evaluate pre-operational forecasting chains able to estimate the potential impacts of flash floods with short anticipation lead times (up to 6 hours). These modelling chains include different components. Distributed hydrological models transform the observed and forecasted rainfall into runoff. Hydraulic models translate this runoff into potential flooded areas. Impact models incorporate these results to evaluate the potential for social and economic impacts. The research and operational partners selected four case studies based on various criteria, including the occurrence of human impacts and damages, the availability of validation data. Validation data include discharges recorded at gauging stations, but also more original information collected after each event, such as peak discharges and maximum water levels estimated from flood marks, insurance claims, damages observed on infrastructure (roads, railway…), victims interviews, casualties,etc. This presentation focuses on the methodology used for the involvement of representative potential end-users, leading to fruitfull dialogues and informative outcomes. Some of the first results of the project are also presented.
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