Irregularly Spaced Intraday Value at Risk (ISIVaR) Models : Forecasting and Predictive Abilities - Archive ouverte HAL
Preprints, Working Papers, ... Year : 2007

Irregularly Spaced Intraday Value at Risk (ISIVaR) Models : Forecasting and Predictive Abilities

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to propose a market risk measure defined in price event time and a suitable backtesting procedure for irregularly spaced data. Firstly, we combine Autoregressive Conditional Duration models for price movements and a non parametric quantile estimation to derive a semi-parametric Irregularly Spaced Intraday Value at Risk (ISIVaR) model. This ISIVaR measure gives two information: the expected duration for the next price event and the related VaR. Secondly, we use a GMM approach to develop a backtest and investigate its finite sample properties through numerical Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we propose an application to two NYSE stocks.
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Dates and versions

halshs-00162440 , version 1 (13-07-2007)

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  • HAL Id : halshs-00162440 , version 1

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Christophe Hurlin, Gilbert Colletaz, Sessi Tokpavi. Irregularly Spaced Intraday Value at Risk (ISIVaR) Models : Forecasting and Predictive Abilities. 2007. ⟨halshs-00162440⟩
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