Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2025

Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications

Résumé

We investigate whether dissent in monetary policy committees affect asset prices. We exploit a feature of the ECB communication for identification: the revelation of dissent during press conferences is separated from policy decision announcements. Following a narrative approach, we compute a novel granular index of ECB dissent for each instrument and identify the dissent direction. Using tick data, we isolate asset price changes exactly when dissent is revealed. Dissent has a strong negative effect on stock prices, that operates specifically around status quo decisions. Dissent is a key driver of stock prices on these days, explaining one-third of their variation.

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hal-05158109 , version 1 (11-07-2025)

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  • HAL Id : hal-05158109 , version 1

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Christophe Blot, Paul Hubert, Fabien Labondance. Dissent in Monetary Policy Decisions: Effects, Channels and Implications. 2025. ⟨hal-05158109⟩
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