Energy restriction cancels the effect of temperature on the growth of common soles (Solea solea) in the Gironde estuary
Abstract
Estuarine and coastal ecosystems are key nursery habitats for the development and growth of many juveniles of marine fish species. Human-induced environmental changes, to which coastal and estuarine areas are particularly sensitive, will largely impact juveniles’ life history traits and consequently, the whole population at sea. Increase of water temperature is the best described and predicted environmental change related to climate change, and will certainly affect the nursery function of estuarine areas. Yet, our capacity to estimate consequences are limited and lack mechanistic models applied at the population level. As a major estuary of Western Europe, the Gironde estuary is a relevant case study to evaluate the effects of rising temperature on fish populations. To study the specific impact of temperature on life history traits of juvenile common soles (Solea solea) in the Gironde estuary, we used a bioenergetic model based on DEB theory. Since the estuary is supposed to have reached its maximum carrying capacity, effects were also estimated in a context of limited energy availability, with forecast scenario based on IPCC previsions. As soles in the Gironde estuary are below their thermal optimum, growth and development are expected to accelerate with increased temperature when food is not a limiting factor. Consequently, soles reach maturity sooner and grow larger. However, when we consider a restriction in available energy, linked to limited carrying capacity of the estuary, the effect of temperature is cancelled and changes in life history traits are negligible. However, a reduced energy in the reserve is estimated, which might alter the response to other environmental changes.
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