The Third-Quarter Phenomenon Trough an Interdisciplinary Lens: Towards Better Adaptation
Résumé
Background The term third-quarter phenomenon emerged from studies conducted in the 1960s on wintering personnel (Bechtel & Berning, 1991; Rohrer, 1958). Researchers identified three stages of psychological response to long-term isolation: an initial phase of heightened anxiety, followed by a period of routine adaptation often accompanied by depression, and finally, a stage marked by emotional outbursts, aggression, and a sense of helplessness. These stages appear consistently, regardless of mission duration or environment, as long as isolation and confinement are present. A related mid-point syndrome, characterized by depressive symptoms, was observed in submarine studies (Earls, 1961; 1969). Similarly, research in space exploration (Rowley, 2000; Stuster, 2010) has reported that the third quarter of a mission is associated with increased emotional instability, aggression, and disruptive behavior, which may negatively impact mission success (Connors, Harrison, & Akins, 1985). Objectives The objective of this multidisciplinary program (2021-2025) is to study the adaptation of winterers in the extreme conditions of Concordia and to assess the existence of the third-quarter phenomenon. Methods To date, research on the third-quarter phenomenon has primarily adopted a psychological perspective. The PAHPA ICE program employs a more comprehensive approach through monthly monitoring, integrating: •Physiological assessments: weight and body composition analysis, physical fitness estimation via the Chester submaximal step test, and circadian rhythm evaluation through salivary cortisol measurements. •Psychological evaluations: mood assessments and positive/negative affect questionnaires. •Cognitive testing: reaction time measurements. •Behavioral monitoring: dietary behavior (food logs) and daily physical activity (questionnaires and actimetry). Results Over the first three wintering periods, more than half of the participants experienced weight loss, affecting both fat and muscle mass. However, this did not correlate with a decline in physical fitness, as assessed by the Chester test over the wintering period. Analyses of cognitive and mood parameters, as well as salivary hormone levels, are ongoing and will be presented at the congress, along with methodological insights on human data collection in polar, isolated, and confined environments. At this stage, we believe the objective data collected does not yet provide a sufficiently precise picture of the third-quarter phenomenon. Numerous interrelated variables—including individual differences among winterers, the nature of their missions, and subjective perceptions of their environment and living conditions—complicate direct comparisons across three overwintering seasons. This challenge aligns with previous findings in extreme environment research, highlighting the need for more nuanced analytical approaches. Moving forward, we aim to refine our methodology by integrating mixed-methods analysis. Conclusion Our research is evolving towards a participatory and narrative approach. On one hand, this involves proposing interventions to enhance living and health conditions during wintering stays at the base. On the other, it includes conducting interviews before, during, and after the mission. By incorporating firsthand accounts from winterers, we aim to achieve a more comprehensive understanding of the third-quarter phenomenon.