Understanding the Temporal Dynamics of Urban Traffic Disruptions: A Stage-Based Congestion Model
Comprendre la dynamique temporelle des perturbations du trafic urbain : un modèle de congestion par étapes
Résumé
Urban traffic disruptions show various recovery patterns and understanding their temporal evolution is critical for effective management strategies. This paper proposes a methodological framework to characterise the temporal evolution of urban traffic disruptions through a stage-based congestion model. It defines three stages -development, plateau, and recovery -and metrics to quantify urban congestion dynamics. The approach is applied on data from unplanned disruptions in the West Midlands, UK. Analysis shows the proposed metrics capture the influence of temporal conditions, incident characteristics, and network structure on congestion evolution. Results indicate that redundancy and network complexity contribute to faster recovery in urban areas.
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