Article Dans Une Revue Earth System Science Data Année : 2025

Global Carbon Budget 2024

Pierre Friedlingstein (1, 2) , Michael O'Sullivan (2) , Matthew Jones (3) , Robbie M. Andrew (4) , Judith Hauck (5) , Peter Landschützer , Corinne Le Quéré (3) , Hongmei Li , Ingrid Luijkx , Are Olsen , Glen Peters , Wouter Peters , Julia Pongratz , Clemens Schwingshackl , Stephen Sitch , Josep Canadell , Philippe Ciais (6) , Robert Jackson , Simone Alin , Almut Arneth , Vivek Arora , Nicholas Bates , Meike Becker , Nicolas Bellouin , Carla Berghoff , Henry Bittig , Laurent Bopp (1) , Patricia Cadule (1) , Katie Campbell , Matthew Chamberlain , Naveen Chandra , Frédéric Chevallier , Louise Chini , Thomas Colligan , Jeanne Decayeux (7) , Laique Djeutchouang , Xinyu Dou , Carolina Duran Rojas , Kazutaka Enyo , Wiley Evans , Amanda Fay , Richard Feely , Daniel Ford , Adrianna Foster , Thomas Gasser , Marion Gehlen , Thanos Gkritzalis , Giacomo Grassi , Luke Gregor , Nicolas Gruber , Özgür Gürses , Ian Harris , Matthew Hefner , Jens Heinke , George Hurtt , Yosuke Iida , Tatiana Ilyina , Andrew Jacobson , Atul Jain , Tereza Jarníková , Annika Jersild , Fei Jiang , Zhe Jin , Etsushi Kato , Ralph Keeling , Kees Klein Goldewijk , Jürgen Knauer , Jan Ivar Korsbakken , Xin Lan , Siv Lauvset , Nathalie Lefèvre (8) , Zhu Liu , Junjie Liu , Lei Ma , Shamil Maksyutov , Gregg Marland , Nicolas Mayot (9) , Patrick Mcguire , Nicolas Metzl (10) , Natalie Monacci , Eric Morgan , Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka , Craig Neill , Yosuke Niwa , Tobias Nützel , Lea Olivier (11) , Tsuneo Ono , Paul Palmer , Denis Pierrot , Zhangcai Qin , Laure Resplandy (12) , Alizée Roobaert , Thais Rosan , Christian Rödenbeck , Jörg Schwinger , T. Luke Smallman , Stephen Smith , Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso , Tobias Steinhoff , Qing Sun , Adrienne Sutton , Roland Séférian (7) , Shintaro Takao (13) , Hiroaki Tatebe (14) , Hanqin Tian , Bronte Tilbrook , Olivier Torres , Etienne Tourigny , Hiroyuki Tsujino , Francesco Tubiello , Guido van der Werf , Rik Wanninkhof , Xuhui Wang , Dongxu Yang , Xiaojuan Yang , Zhen Yu , Wenping Yuan , Xu Yue , Sönke Zaehle , Ning Zeng , Jiye Zeng
Michael O'Sullivan
Judith Hauck
Peter Landschützer
Hongmei Li
Ingrid Luijkx
Are Olsen
Glen Peters
Wouter Peters
Julia Pongratz
Clemens Schwingshackl
Stephen Sitch
  • Fonction : Auteur
Josep Canadell
Robert Jackson
Simone Alin
Almut Arneth
Vivek Arora
  • Fonction : Auteur
Nicholas Bates
  • Fonction : Auteur
Meike Becker
Nicolas Bellouin
Carla Berghoff
  • Fonction : Auteur
Henry Bittig
Katie Campbell
  • Fonction : Auteur
Matthew Chamberlain
Naveen Chandra
Frédéric Chevallier
Louise Chini
Thomas Colligan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Laique Djeutchouang
Xinyu Dou
Carolina Duran Rojas
Kazutaka Enyo
  • Fonction : Auteur
Wiley Evans
Amanda Fay
Richard Feely
  • Fonction : Auteur
Daniel Ford
Adrianna Foster
  • Fonction : Auteur
Thomas Gasser
Marion Gehlen
Thanos Gkritzalis
  • Fonction : Auteur
Giacomo Grassi
  • Fonction : Auteur
Luke Gregor
Nicolas Gruber
Özgür Gürses
Ian Harris
  • Fonction : Auteur
Matthew Hefner
  • Fonction : Auteur
Jens Heinke
George Hurtt
Yosuke Iida
Tatiana Ilyina
Andrew Jacobson
  • Fonction : Auteur
Atul Jain
Tereza Jarníková
Annika Jersild
  • Fonction : Auteur
Fei Jiang
Zhe Jin
  • Fonction : Auteur
Etsushi Kato
Ralph Keeling
Kees Klein Goldewijk
Jürgen Knauer
Jan Ivar Korsbakken
Xin Lan
Siv Lauvset
Zhu Liu
Junjie Liu
Lei Ma
  • Fonction : Auteur
Shamil Maksyutov
Gregg Marland
  • Fonction : Auteur
Patrick Mcguire
Natalie Monacci
Eric Morgan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka
Craig Neill
  • Fonction : Auteur
Yosuke Niwa
Tobias Nützel
Tsuneo Ono
  • Fonction : Auteur
Paul Palmer
Denis Pierrot
Zhangcai Qin
Laure Resplandy
Alizée Roobaert
Thais Rosan
Christian Rödenbeck
Jörg Schwinger
T. Luke Smallman
Stephen Smith
Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso
  • Fonction : Auteur
Tobias Steinhoff
Qing Sun
Adrienne Sutton
Hanqin Tian
Bronte Tilbrook
Olivier Torres
Etienne Tourigny
Hiroyuki Tsujino
Francesco Tubiello
Guido van der Werf
Rik Wanninkhof
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xuhui Wang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Dongxu Yang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xiaojuan Yang
  • Fonction : Auteur
Zhen Yu
Wenping Yuan
  • Fonction : Auteur
Xu Yue
Sönke Zaehle
Ning Zeng
Jiye Zeng
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 is the fugacity of CO2). The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2023, EFOS increased by 1.3 % relative to 2022, with fossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.0 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (40.6 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2023, GATM was 5.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.79 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.3 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a near-zero BIM (−0.02 GtC yr−1). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2024 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2023 of +0.8 % (−0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally and an atmospheric CO2 concentration increase by 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2023, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living-data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).

Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
essd-17-965-2025.pdf (12.38 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte
Licence
DOI

Cite 10.18160/GCP-2024 Jeu de données Global Carbon Project. (2024). Supplemental data of Global Carbon Budget 2024 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024

DOI

Cite 10.5281/zenodo.13981696 Jeu de données Andrew, R. M., & Peters, G. P. (2024). The Global Carbon Project’s fossil CO2 emissions dataset (Version 2024v17) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.13981696

Dates et versions

hal-05003819 , version 1 (24-03-2025)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O'Sullivan, Matthew Jones, Robbie M. Andrew, Judith Hauck, et al.. Global Carbon Budget 2024. Earth System Science Data, 2025, 17 (3), pp.965-1039. ⟨10.5194/essd-17-965-2025⟩. ⟨hal-05003819⟩
429 Consultations
364 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

  • More