Simulation and analyses of ICAO transition scenarios using the AeroMAPS open-source framework
Résumé
Given the need for the aviation sector to make the necessary transition to meet environmental challenges, many stakeholders in the ecosystem are proposing transition roadmaps. Here, we propose the use of AeroMAPS, an open-source modular framework for simulating air transport prospective scenarios, to reproduce these roadmaps. The approach is illustrated using scenarios from a report from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in the context of its Long-Term global Aspirational Goal (LTAG). We demonstrate that AeroMAPS allows a rapid and consistent reproduction of the scenario, with, for instance, less than 5% differences in CO2 emissions and efficiency cost, although larger differences are obtained for fuel costs due to differing assumptions (e.g. electricity). A significant advantage of using AeroMAPS is that it can be used to perform additional analyses, such as assessing non-CO2 climate and other environmental impacts, estimating abatement costs of mitigation strategies, and optimising scenarios.
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