Permafrost Landscape Thermal Pattern Trend Analysis by MODIS Daytime Land Surface Temperature and Land Cover in Yakutia: 2001 to 2020
Résumé
The thermal pattern of permafrost landscapes can change rapidly as a result of forest fires, permafrost degradation and/or vegetation cover dynamics under the impact of the global warming. Land Surface Temperature (LST), as a critical variable in understanding climate-induced change, could allow insights into the presence of a significant thermal response in permafrost landscapes to global warming and associated land cover change. Using MODIS data, LST trends and land cover change over Yakutia in Eastern Siberia, the largest permafrost region of the World. Daytime 1-km MOD21C3.061 Terra Land Surface Temperature and 3-Band Emissivity Monthly L3 Global seasonal datasets were used to derive seasonal LSTs for spring (March, April, May), summer (June, July and August) and autumn (September, October and November), as well as annual LSTs for the period from 2001 to 2020. The results of the nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope test indicate a significant trend of daytime LST warming in the northwestern part of the region and the mountains of the northeastern part. There was no significant cooling trends recorded at any time of the year. The land cover change reveals that these positive LST dynamics are related to the processes of tundra ‘greening’ and forest expansion in Arctic permafrost landscapes. The average Sen's slope of LST showed an increasing trend year by year (0.034 °C/a) from 2000 to 2020, with the most obvious rise in LST North-West Yakutia and in Novosibirsk Islands (0.066 °C/a) in autumn. The results are an important regional demonstration for studying climate change in Arctic and permafrost regions.