Integrating climate change scenarios for assessing baseline scenario trends: contribution of CDS Toolbox - Archive ouverte HAL
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2021

Integrating climate change scenarios for assessing baseline scenario trends: contribution of CDS Toolbox

Guillermo Hinojos-Mendoza
  • Fonction : Auteur
Cesar Arturo
  • Fonction : Auteur
Gutierrez Ramos
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1442559
Jessica Mariscal Guerra
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1442560
Liliana Jáquez Frías
  • Fonction : Auteur
Dulce María
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1442561
Heredia Corral
  • Fonction : Auteur
Elizabeth Linu
  • Fonction : Auteur

Résumé

Climate change is affecting the environment and ecosystems at all geographic scales. In view of the impacts of this phenomena having the possibility to increase in the future, worldwide experts and the European Commission argue that it becomes relevant to consider this phenomenon on the assessment of the baseline scenario evolution including the potential changes of ecosystem structures and functions, during the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. This baseline scenario, also called 'Do Nothing Scenario', requires the use of relevant data and models with the aim to estimate the dynamics of species and ecosystems for the future. Our article aims to introduce the CDS Toolbox that has been developed for this scope. This toolbox is based on two complementary models developed by ASES and CDS, namely the Species Distribution Model (SDM) and the Tlaloc downscaling model. The purpose of SDM is to estimate the potential spatial distribution of suitable areas for species, community of species, ecosystems and landscape units according to 22 relevant ecological variables. Tlaloc model allows downscaling climatic data at very high spatial resolutions (from 1000m to 5m) in order to provide climatic data at a relevant spatial resolution for decision-makers.

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Dates et versions

hal-04787478 , version 1 (17-11-2024)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04787478 , version 1

Citer

Emmanuel Garbolino, Guillermo Hinojos-Mendoza, Cesar Arturo, Gutierrez Ramos, Jessica Mariscal Guerra, et al.. Integrating climate change scenarios for assessing baseline scenario trends: contribution of CDS Toolbox. Smartening Impact Assessment in Challenging Times, International Association of Impact Assessment (IAIA), May 2021, Onlince Conference, France. ⟨hal-04787478⟩
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