Article Dans Une Revue Cognition Année : 2024

How wise is the crowd: Can we infer people are accurate and competent merely because they agree with each other?

Jan Pfänder
  • Fonction : Auteur
  • PersonId : 1437059
Benoît de Courson
Hugo Mercier

Résumé

Are people who agree on something more likely to be right and competent? Evidence suggests that people tend to make this inference. However, stan- dard wisdom of crowds approaches only provide limited normative grounds. Using simulations and analytical arguments, we argue that when individuals make independent and unbiased estimates, under a wide range of parame- ters, individuals whose answers converge with each other tend to have more accurate answers and to be more competent. In 6 experiments (UK partici- pants, total N = 1197), we show that participants infer that informants who agree have more accurate answers and are more competent, even when they have no priors, and that these inferences are weakened when the informants were systematically biased. In conclusion, we speculate that inferences from convergence to accuracy and competence might help explain why people deem scientists competent, even if they have little understanding of science.

Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Pfänder et al How wise is the crowd.pdf (4.69 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Accord explicite pour ce dépôt
Licence

Dates et versions

hal-04769112 , version 1 (08-11-2024)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Jan Pfänder, Benoît de Courson, Hugo Mercier. How wise is the crowd: Can we infer people are accurate and competent merely because they agree with each other?. Cognition, 2024, 255, pp.106005. ⟨10.1016/j.cognition.2024.106005⟩. ⟨hal-04769112⟩
278 Consultations
244 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

  • More