Questioning the use of median values in IPCC AR6 scenarios​ - Archive ouverte HAL
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2024

Questioning the use of median values in IPCC AR6 scenarios​

Résumé

In 2022, the IPCC WGIII finalized the 6th assessment report (AR6) and delivered an open database hosted by IIASA that collects detailed data on possible transition pathways related to the third chapter. This data is being used by companies to establish their strategy or vision of the future through so-called outlooks. We have noticed some shortcuts in using this data, notably that median values of scenario categories (e.g., C1, C2) serve as references, although these median values do not correspond to specific or referenced scenarios. We question this approach by conducting a reductio ad absurdum reasoning to demonstrate that it can lead to flawed results. We employ a bottom-up integrated assessment model, TIAM-FR, fed by median values of category C1 from Tables 3.2, 3.4, and 3.6 of IPCC WGIII AR6 Chapter 3. The model is thus driven by global GHG emissions trajectories and constrained by global indices such as the low-carbon share of primary energy or CO2 intensity of electricity throughout the 21st century. Running the model leads us either to infeasibilities or inconsistencies. For example, regions and countries such as the former Soviet Union or China become carbon neutral by 2040. Further top-down analysis on other results will be provided. Besides, implementing the GHG emissions profile back in the MAGICC module places the median scenario in the C2 category. Our analysis illustrates that following median values altogether is a misleading practice if one is willing to support their transition pathway with IPCC results. Therefore, we believe it would be useful to mention that these median values should not be used to design pathways but simply serve as an indication for the reader.
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hal-04712128 , version 1 (21-11-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04712128 , version 1

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Lucas Desport, Naima Chabouni, Sandrine Selosse, Nadia Maïzi. Questioning the use of median values in IPCC AR6 scenarios​. What Works Climate Solutions Summit, TU Berlin, Jun 2024, Berlin, Germany. ⟨hal-04712128⟩
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