Bivariate integer-autoregressive process with an application to mutual fund flows
Résumé
We propose a new family of bivariate nonnegative integer-autoregressive (BINAR)
models for count process data. We first generalize the existing BINAR(1) model by
allowing for dependent thinning operators and arbitrary innovation distribution. The
extended family allows for intuitive interpretation, as well as tractable aggregation
and stationarity properties. We then introduce higher order BINAR(p) and BINAR(∞)
dynamics to accommodate more flexible serial dependence patterns. So far, the literature
has regarded such models as computationally intractable. We show that the extended
BINAR family allows for closed-form predictive distributions at any horizons and for
any values of p, which significantly facilitates non-linear forecasting and likelihood
based estimation. Finally, a BINAR(∞) model with memory persistence is applied to
open-ended mutual fund purchase and redemption order counts