Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project - Archive ouverte HAL
Article Dans Une Revue BMJ Global Health Année : 2024

Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project

Chryso Th. Pallari
Souzana Achilleos
Annalisa Quattrocchi
Elena Critselis
Mohammad Reza Rahmanian Haghighi
Stefania Papatheodorou
Tianyu Liu
Andreas Artemiou
Catherine M Bennett
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Natalia Bustos Sierra
Reindert Ekelson
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Jackeline Lobato
Laust Hvas Mortensen
Julia Critchley
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Lucy Goldsmith
Gleb Denissov
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Levan Kandelaki
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Binyamin Binyaminy
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Tamar Maor
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Kairat Davletov
Marie Chan Sun
Terje P Hagen
Mario Chong
Manuel Barron
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Nataliia Pidmurniak
Qian Huang
Andreas Charalambous
Christiana A Demetriou

Résumé

Introduction: To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age. Methods: Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015-2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models. Results: Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Conclusion: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.
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Dates et versions

hal-04576153 , version 1 (15-05-2024)

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Chryso Th. Pallari, Souzana Achilleos, Annalisa Quattrocchi, John Gabel, Elena Critselis, et al.. Magnitude and determinants of excess total, age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality in 24 countries worldwide during 2020 and 2021: results on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic from the C-MOR project. BMJ Global Health, 2024, 9 (4), pp.e013018. ⟨10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013018⟩. ⟨hal-04576153⟩
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