Monetary valuation of the prevention of road fatalities and serious road injuries - Archive ouverte HAL Accéder directement au contenu
Rapport Année : 2021

Monetary valuation of the prevention of road fatalities and serious road injuries

Résumé

Scope and research question The VALOR project is the first research initiative in which scientists from four European countries, namely Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands, have joined efforts in order to estimate VSL (Value of a Statistical Life), VSSI (Value of a Statistical Serious Injury) and VoT (Value of Time) by applying a common methodology. This study addresses the following research question: “What is the monetary valuation of the prevention of road fatalities and serious road injuries?” The use of the VALOR outcomes is twofold. Firstly, the VSL and VSSI are an important input for calculating the socio-economic costs of road crashes. Information on these costs is regularly used in road policy-making. For instance, information on the socio-economic burden of road crashes can be used as an input for budget allocation and helps to justify road safety investments. Also, comparisons can be made with the costs of other policy measures. Secondly, the VSL and VSSI are needed for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of road safety measures or broader infrastructure projects with road safety impacts. Methodology This research is based on a preparatory study (Wijnen, et al., 2019) which assessed different methods for the monetary valuation of ”non-market goods”. As a result, it was decided to use a stated preference method (as opposed to revealed preference) and, more precisely, a stated choice study (as opposed to a contingent valuation study) for estimating the Willingness-To-Pay (WTP) for reducing the risk of fatal and serious injuries in road accidents. Respondents from each participating country were confronted with hypothetical route choices that differ in respect of travel costs, time, and crash risk. The survey was conducted between 22 October and 13 November 2020 and included 8,003 respondents. It comprised 2,005 Belgian respondents, 2,000 French, 2,000 from Germany and 1,998 from the Netherlands. The sample was compos d of 3,928 males (49.1%) and 4,075 females (50.9%). Within the full sample, 2,513 respondents (33.2%) were identified as lexicographic (always choosing the alternative with the best score on a particular attribute, to avoid complexity) and 445 respondents who answered irrational. Both groups were excluded from the main analysis. VALOR deployed different econometric models (mixed and binomial logit) and correspondingly produced several sets of values, the convergence of which shows the robustness of its results. However, a trade-off between reliability and performance had to be made in order to determine which model to choose. It was decided to use as a reference model the mixed logit with the panel dimension and without interactions. Results The main results are as follows: the average VSL was estimated at 6.2 Mill EUR, the VSSI at 950,000 EUR, and the VoT at 16.1 EUR/h. The VSL lies in the range between 5.3 and 7 Mill EUR and the VSSI between 0.8 and 1.1 Mill EUR. Accordingly, the ratio of values between fatalities and injuries is estimated at around 7 to 1. The experimental protocol appeared to be properly designed, and the reliability of results can be confirmed, particularly as a result of observations made while addressing hypothetical bias and lexicographic behaviour. For instance, with regard to hypothetical bias, the exclusion of 1,900 respondents who did not consider the survey design as realistic did not significantly modify the final estimates (the increases in VSL, VSSI and VoT did not exceed 3%). The study revealed some differences between countries. France shows the lowest WTP, while Germany has the highest. The difference between values of these two countries was 38%. Belgium and the Netherlands show quite similar values. For each country the new estimates of VALOR are considerably higher than earlier official values. Comparing the new estimates of this study with official values of the participating countries is difficult, because of different methodologies used. Earlier academic studies on VSL using WTP show a broad dispersion in estimates. The estimates from VALOR is at the higher end of range of VSL estimates in earlier research. Interpretation: interactions, COVID effect The models used in this study permit closer examination of the impact of variables. Correlations with variables such as age, parenthood, having a partner/relatives, income, risk assessment, experience of having accidents, and with participating countries were found. Secondly, the Covid-19 impact has been taken into account. It was assumed that the lockdown, the reduction of mobility, the prevention measures, as well as high numbers of Covid-19 victims, could affect the preferences of individuals regarding risk and their perception of road safety. However, the impact of the pandemic on the estimated values was found not to be significant since the fraction of respondents showing a sizeable effect is very small. Three latent variables - “thriftiness”, “time pressure” and “risky behaviour” - were introduced in order to gain additional information about the impact of individual preferences on VSL and VSSI. It appeared that attitude to risk is an important factor. VSL and VSSI values revealed in the group of risk-avoiding drivers are almost two times higher than those of the group of risk-takers.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
VALOR_Report_definitive_version.pdf (4.87 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)

Dates et versions

hal-04575341 , version 1 (14-05-2024)

Identifiants

Citer

Martin Koning, Laurent Carnis, Stijn Daniels, Dominique Mignot, Raschid Urmeew, et al.. Monetary valuation of the prevention of road fatalities and serious road injuries: Results of the Valor Project. VIAS Institute (Belgium); BASt (Germany); KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (The Netherlands); Université Gustave Eiffel (France); KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis. 2021, pp.125. ⟨hal-04575341⟩
0 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More