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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail Année : 2024

Gender-specific effects of Russia-Ukraine conflict - Evidence from South Africa

Résumé

The Russia-Ukraine war has caused trade distortions, increasing international energy, fertiliser, and food prices. In emerging and developing countries, rising consumer prices have disproportionately hit the poor population. In South Africa, where women's poverty and inequality are extremely high, women are hit harder than men. In this study, we apply a gendered static single-country CGE model and a behavioural microsimulation model to simulate the macroeconomic impacts of the war-caused trade distortions and analyse the gendered impact on the South African economy. The results show that the global price shock decreased labour demand and real GDP by 0.48 percent and 0.26 per cent. Men's per capita food spending fell by 0.78 per cent, while women's fell by 0.99 per cent. Women accounted for 58 percent of jobs lost due to the labour market effect. Women are also more affected than men in terms of the depth and severity of food poverty. The impacts are stronger for rural and black African populations, indicating that policy measures need to consider the gendered differences to counteract the socioeconomic impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war.
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Dates et versions

hal-04535835 , version 1 (07-04-2024)

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  • HAL Id : hal-04535835 , version 1

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Muhammad Ayaz, Martin Henseler, Hélène Maisonnave, Mazhar Mughal. Gender-specific effects of Russia-Ukraine conflict - Evidence from South Africa. 2024. ⟨hal-04535835⟩
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